Greater New Haven Milford Connecticut Metro area continues House Price stability since 2012 with growth in 3Q2018

2/9/19– 3Q2018 Milford-New Haven Metro shows a increase of 2 points to 180, rising above the Carr value Shelf (FHFA HPI 173-178 first identifed in 2014)  as discussed in my yout ube video found in the menu below.  Too much ink building today, look for my next update in March 2019, or follow me  T@ctrealdavecarr 


6/10/2018 Ending 1Q2018 FHFA Milford-New Haven Metro All Transaction House Price Index (HPI) rises to 182.23.    The Carr Value Self has identified the 173-178 range of the FHFA All Transactions House Price Index as a five point range of value since 2Q2012.  Be an expert in your market.


8-22-2017 (CT) The Greater New Haven Milford Connecticut Metro area continued to maintain stability since 2012 (despite two quarters of correction when the index dropped 0.02 in 3Q2016 and 0.54 in 4Q2016) to post another positive report.

2Q2017 showed another quarter of solid strength in New Haven Milford Metro All Transactions HPI rising to 179.57, a 1.13-point 90-day gain, 2.52 higher than the 2012 creation of the Carr Value Shelf, when the 1Q2012 Value was 177.05.  Connecticut REALTORS reported a statewide increase in median values ending June 2017 following previous months of increased transactions with no price appreciation.

The Carr Value Shelf has been defined since 2014 as the FHFA-HPI range of value between 173 and 178. The Milford New Haven Metro broke out of The Carr Value Shelf lower range once in 1Q2014 for one quarter, and out of the upper range three times, 3Q2016 at 179.1, 4Q2016 at 179.08, and 2Q2017 at 179.57

In 2012, I first identified the beginning of this buyer’s market on my face book pages, yet lacked the statistical credibility to support my observation, which led to the creation of the Carr Value Shelf in 2014. My goal was not be another REALTOR crowing now is the time to buy because it would be good for my industry.  My commitment is to identify conditions favorable to people who want to access the leveraged power of real estate ownership, with associated tax and investment advantages.

In a May 22 2017 commentary about Highest and Lowest Risk US Housing Markets (by CoreLogic, a data and analytics company), Hartford and New Haven Milford presented the two lowest (0.30% & 3.5% respectively) HPI growth since January 2012. Of the 257 metros both Hartford and New Haven placed in the 35th (of 100 rank) for flip rankings (93 & 97 respectively). New Haven/Milford ranked better than Hartford and Bridgeport/Stamford/Norwalk in the fraud rankings. The data indicates lower than median risk couple with 11-12% rent growth since 2012. This may be indicator of a more a secure market than other metros in the United States, despite Connecticut’s financial struggles, which seem to be priced into vales at this time. When we look at house prices and taxes in New Jersey, Long island and New York City, property in Connecticut is a comparable regional bargain.

Other indicators of undervaluation can be found in the FHFA Metro Area House Price All Transaction Residential Indexes, New Haven Milford was rated in the bottom 7% for overall appreciation (240 of 257) ending 2017Q1. For only 2017Q1, New Haven-Milford lost 0.47 point to place 201 of 257. One-year appreciation for the area was +0.68, very close to the five years, 0.60-point increase since 2012, indicating a possible shelf of value comparable to 1991-1997, Since 1991 the index has increased 58.71.

Homeownership was never supposed to be a cash out vehicle. Home ownership is protected on many levels, as long as the owners don’t agree to liens. A person buying in 1997 would have seen their estate appreciate almost 100% through 2017 if they did not assume cash out encumbrances. Home ownership (not mortgages) free people from rent payments, allows their cost of living to go down or be stabilized, provides tax benefits, and can provide for end of life financial and life place security.

My comparable observation is that stability over the past 5 years is a positive economic indicator for property value in Southern Connecticut, especially locations served by Metro North into NYC. . Inventory of property sold in this 2012-2017 period has maintained a base value despite statewide economic issues caused be years of debt loading by state government which began in the early 1990’s. This financial situation now appears to be disclosed and priced into values, leaving Connecticut a better life place choice than New York or New Jersey, with regional rail and quality of life assets that will support further growth of real estate values over time. Evolution in workplace structure allows more people to consider a two hour rail commute an acceptable choice when supplemented with wireless technologies for productivity or entertainment.  Changes in climate have created new opportunities for grape and hop cultivation.  New York and New Jersey real estate values and tax burdens make my Greater New Haven Milford shoreline market a comparable bargain, and may suggest that Eastern Connecticut will be the New Hamptons.

Since 1996 I, David Carr, have established licensed fiduciary relationships with buyers and sellers of real property in Connecticut. My goal is to provide exceptional needs assessment, resource evaluation, long term planning, value identification, transparent transaction management, and comparable market analysis. My experience, care for my clients, and team at Berkshire Hathaway Home Services New England (On the Green in Milford, CT.) add value to the quality of service I provide. For more information, or to schedule an appointment call 203-877-2704 x800426.

Copyright 2017 David Carr All Rights Reserved


All-Transactions Indexes (Estimated using Sales Prices and Appraisal Data) Aug 22, 2017

“New Haven-Milford, CT”  35300  2012-1   177.05  -1.18

“New Haven-Milford, CT”  35300 2012- 2   174.8   -1.18

“New Haven-Milford, CT”  35300  2012- 3  174.89  -1.17

“New Haven-Milford, CT”  35300  2012 -4   175.25  -1.17

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2013- 1  175.21  -1.19

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2013-2   174.89  -1.19

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2013-3   174.82  -1.23

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2013-4  173.39  -1.31

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2014-1-  171.92  -1.35

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2014-2  172.38  -1.31

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2014-3  173.07  -1.29

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2014- 4  173.83  -1.29

“New Haven-Milford, CT”  35300  2015-1  176.37  -1.32

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2015-2   176.73  -1.34

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2015-3   176.03  -1.36

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2015-4   176.91  -1.41

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2016-1    176.29  -1.43

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2016-2     178.04  -1.4

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2016-3     179.1  -1.35

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2016-4     179.08  -1.39

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2017-1      178.44  -1.6

“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300  2017-2     179.57  -1.58