July 3, 2019
Ending 1Q2019 The Carr New Haven Milford Metro Value Shelf© has increased in value 0.34 after a slight appreciation in 4Q2019. This small appreciation in 4Q2019 and 0.33 entrancement can have many causes which I can not identify,with a variance of 1.62 to 1.85
3Q2018 184.53 (-1.62) 4Q2018 185.2 (- 1.76) 1Q2019 184.87 ( -1.85)
The Carr New Haven Milford Metro Value Shelf© identifies the FHFA HPI range of 173-178, the 5 point variance this data-set has presented for the 75 months between 2Q2011 and 4Q2017.
Since June 30, 2016 the HPI value of 177 has been maintained, testing the upper limit of the Carr New Haven Milford Metro Value Shelf and revisiting 2Q2011 when I first identified 1.03 appreciation in the FHFA All Transactions House Price Index .
While this history does not provide value assurance the data demonstrates a significant amount of price stability, while reserving greater levels of national appreciation that continue to exceed the moderate appreciation in Connecticut.
Another Interesting Fact to Consider is the Five Year House Price Appreciation which reflects a longer time period than the quarterly reports I share with you. Looking at my Milford New Haven Metro Market since 2013 we see consistent improvement in this often ignored statistic.
March 31, 2013 5 Year Milford/NewHaven HPI Change -17.84% March 31, 2014 5 Year Milford/NewHaven HPI Change -13.82% March 31, 2015 5 Year Milford/NewHaven HPI Change -5.05% March 31, 2016 5 Year Milford/NewHaven HPI Change -2.31% March 31, 2017 5 Year Milford/NewHaven HPI Change +0.61% March 31, 2018 5 Year Milford/NewHaven HPI Change +4.11 % March 31, 2019 5 Year Milford/NewHaven HPI Change +7.79%
This is an interesting and important correlation with the beginning of the Carr Value Shelf in 2Q2012, since an acquisition position at that time would have produced appreciation, as I have been saying in the past. I remain confident about the steady values of Connecticut with our proximity to the shoreline and seasonable year round climate. It’s never cold if you dress warm.
There are Multiple Values of Home Ownership which are unique to each household and neighborhood which I work to identify and explore with my clients who are relocating. By clearly identifying personal values, expectations and resources I can help people understand the opportunity and obligations of property title, and the potential for return on investment
The time is right to buy real estate when rent own ratios, employment, life stage, and commitment to a community are all positive. While Connecticut has identified structural financial challenges, I remain confident Greater New Haven, and Connecticut’s overall real estate values will prosper in the future for many reasons including proximity to Metro New York City, proximity in New England, our shoreline, strong natural resources which are protected by law, generally hospitable weather, inland recreation, access to quality healthcare, convenient shopping, bio engineering, advanced manufacturing opportunity, prominent institutions of higher learning and all around high quality of life.
Remember, Real Estate is Local but your life is regional, which is why my experience since 1996 in the neighborhoods of Greater New Haven Connecticut is valuable for people are seeking a qualified, experienced fiduciary agent to provide experienced consultation, market interpretation and results driven transaction management. Buying or selling, you make the right move when you team with David Carr, MA, PSCS. ©Copyright 2019 – All Rights Reserved.
YEAR QTR VALUE VAR COMMENT
2008 2 208.67 -1.36 Peak of Irrational CT. Exuberance
2008 3 201.41 -1.34
2008 4 200.47 -1.35
2009 1 202.21 -1.3
2009 2 195.05 -1.24
2009 3 189.34 -1.24
2009 4 189.67 -1.25
2010 1 186.8 -1.26
2010 2 185.63 -1.24
2010 3 187.45 -1.23
2010 4 186.88 -1.2
2011 1 181.67 -1.22
2011 2 177.89 -1.21 Begin Carr Value Shelf
2011 3 178.92 -1.2 Appreciation Noted
2011 4 179.74 -1.18
2012 1 176.96 -1.17 Appreciation Noted
2012 2 174.51 -1.16 Carr Value Shelf 1st Year
2012 3 174.78 -1.16
2012 4 175.07 -1.16
2013 1 174.97 -1.17
2013 2 174.65 -1.18 Carr Value Shelf 2nd Year
2013 3 174.4 -1.21
2013 4 172.99 -1.29
2014 1 171.52 -1.32 Historical Low FHFA HPI
2014 2 171.73 -1.28 Carr Value Shelf 3rd Year
2014 3 172.53 -1.26
2014 4 172.97 -1.26
2015 1 175.52 -1.29
2015 2 176.01 -1.31 Carr Value Shelf 4th Year
2015 3 175.22 -1.32
2015 4 175.93 -1.36
2016 1 175.4 -1.38
2016 2 177.12 -1.36 Carr Value Shelf 5th Year
2016 3 178.12 -1.31
2016 4 178.25 -1.34
2017 1 177.09 -1.51
2017 2 177.92 -1.43 Carr Value Shelf 6th Year
2017 3 178.63 -1.44 END CARR 173-178 VALUE SHELF
2017 4 181.25 -1.46 Value Shelf Exceeded
2018 1 180.74 -1.63
2018 2 182.05 -1.53
2018 3 184.53 -1.62
2018 4 185.2 -1.76
2019 1 184.87 -1.85
SOURCE: FHFA Quarterly Data All-Transactions Indexes May 28, 2019
(Estimated using Sales Prices and Appraisal Data)
The Carr Value Shelf is not a forecast of future values, but one on many indicators available to evaluate the Multiple Values of Home Ownership specific to your individual resources, life stage and housing requirements.
Carr Value Shelf ©Copyright 2012 All Rights Reserved.
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2/9/19– 3Q2018 Milford-New Haven Metro shows a increase of 2 points to 180, rising above the Carr value Shelf (FHFA HPI 173-178 first identifed in 2014) as discussed in my yout tube video found in the menu below. Too much ink building today, look for my next update in March 2019, or follow me T@ctrealdavecarr
6/10/2018 Ending 1Q2018 FHFA Milford-New Haven Metro All Transaction House Price Index (HPI) rises to 182.23. The Carr Value Self has identified the 173-178 range of the FHFA All Transactions House Price Index as a five point range of value since 2Q2012. Be an expert in your market.
8-22-2017 (CT) The Greater New Haven Milford Connecticut Metro area continued to maintain stability since 2012 (despite two quarters of correction when the index dropped 0.02 in 3Q2016 and 0.54 in 4Q2016) to post another positive report.
2Q2017 showed another quarter of solid strength in New Haven Milford Metro All Transactions HPI rising to 179.57, a 1.13-point 90-day gain, 2.52 higher than the 2012 creation of the Carr Value Shelf, when the 1Q2012 Value was 177.05. Â Connecticut REALTORS reported a statewide increase in median values ending June 2017 following previous months of increased transactions with no price appreciation.
The Carr Value Shelf has been defined since 2014 as the FHFA-HPI range of value between 173 and 178. The Milford New Haven Metro broke out of The Carr Value Shelf lower range once in 1Q2014 for one quarter, and out of the upper range three times, 3Q2016 at 179.1, 4Q2016 at 179.08, and 2Q2017 at 179.57
In 2012, I first identified the beginning of this buyer’s market on my face book pages, yet lacked the statistical credibility to support my observation, which led to the creation of the Carr Value Shelf in 2014. My goal was not be another REALTOR crowing now is the time to buy because it would be good for my industry. Â My commitment is to identify conditions favorable to people who want to access the leveraged power of real estate ownership, with associated tax and investment advantages.
In a May 22 2017 commentary about Highest and Lowest Risk US Housing Markets (by CoreLogic, a data and analytics company), Hartford and New Haven Milford presented the two lowest (0.30% & 3.5% respectively) HPI growth since January 2012. Of the 257 metros both Hartford and New Haven placed in the 35th (of 100 rank) for flip rankings (93 & 97 respectively). New Haven/Milford ranked better than Hartford and Bridgeport/Stamford/Norwalk in the fraud rankings. The data indicates lower than median risk couple with 11-12% rent growth since 2012. This may be indicator of a more a secure market than other metros in the United States, despite Connecticut’s financial struggles, which seem to be priced into vales at this time. When we look at house prices and taxes in New Jersey, Long island and New York City, property in Connecticut is a comparable regional bargain.
Other indicators of undervaluation can be found in the FHFA Metro Area House Price All Transaction Residential Indexes, New Haven Milford was rated in the bottom 7% for overall appreciation (240 of 257) ending 2017Q1. For only 2017Q1, New Haven-Milford lost 0.47 point to place 201 of 257. One-year appreciation for the area was +0.68, very close to the five years, 0.60-point increase since 2012, indicating a possible shelf of value comparable to 1991-1997, Since 1991 the index has increased 58.71.
Homeownership was never supposed to be a cash out vehicle. Home ownership is protected on many levels, as long as the owners don’t agree to liens. A person buying in 1997 would have seen their estate appreciate almost 100% through 2017 if they did not assume cash out encumbrances. Home ownership (not mortgages) free people from rent payments, allows their cost of living to go down or be stabilized, provides tax benefits, and can provide for end of life financial and life place security.
My comparable observation is that stability over the past 5 years is a positive economic indicator for property value in Southern Connecticut, especially locations served by Metro North into NYC. . Inventory of property sold in this 2012-2017 period has maintained a base value despite statewide economic issues caused be years of debt loading by state government which began in the early 1990’s. This financial situation now appears to be disclosed and priced into values, leaving Connecticut a better life place choice than New York or New Jersey, with regional rail and quality of life assets that will support further growth of real estate values over time. Evolution in workplace structure allows more people to consider a two hour rail commute an acceptable choice when supplemented with wireless technologies for productivity or entertainment. Changes in climate have created new opportunities for grape and hop cultivation. New York and New Jersey real estate values and tax burdens make my Greater New Haven Milford shoreline market a comparable bargain, and may suggest that Eastern Connecticut will be the New Hamptons.
Since 1996 I, David Carr, have established licensed fiduciary relationships with buyers and sellers of real property in Connecticut. My goal is to provide exceptional needs assessment, resource evaluation, long term planning, value identification, transparent transaction management, and comparable market analysis. My experience, care for my clients, and team at Berkshire Hathaway Home Services New England (On the Green in Milford, CT.) add value to the quality of service I provide. For more information, or to schedule an appointment call 203-877-2704 x800426.
Copyright 2017 David Carr All Rights Reserved
All-Transactions Indexes (Estimated using Sales Prices and Appraisal Data) Aug 22, 2017
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2012-1 177.05 -1.18
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2012- 2 174.8 -1.18
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2012- 3 174.89 -1.17
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2012 -4 175.25 -1.17
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2013- 1 175.21 -1.19
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2013-2 174.89 -1.19
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2013-3 174.82 -1.23
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2013-4 173.39 -1.31
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2014-1- 171.92 -1.35
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2014-2 172.38 -1.31
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2014-3 173.07 -1.29
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2014- 4 173.83 -1.29
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2015-1 176.37 -1.32
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2015-2 176.73 -1.34
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2015-3 176.03 -1.36
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2015-4 176.91 -1.41
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2016-1 176.29 -1.43
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2016-2 178.04 -1.4
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2016-3 179.1 -1.35
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2016-4 179.08 -1.39
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2017-1 178.44 -1.6
“New Haven-Milford, CT” 35300 2017-2 179.57 -1.58